Interaction with Forecasters & Economists of GDP and CPI in Mumbai
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) organised the meet in Mumbai for making these indices more robust and effective.
S&P Global Ratings maintained India’s growth forecast at 6.8 per cent while noting that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may cut interest rates in October.
S&P also retained its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the financial year 2025-26 (FY26) at 6.9 per cent in its economic outlook for the Asia-Pacific region.
It further noted that India’s strong growth would help the RBI manage inflation.
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“In India, GDP growth moderated in the June quarter as high interest rates tempered urban demand, in line with our projection of 6.8 per cent GDP for the full financial year 2024-25,” S&P said. In FY24, India’s economic growth rate reached an impressive 8.2 per cent.
“Our outlook remains unchanged: we expect the RBI to begin cutting rates in October at the earliest and have pencilled in two rate cuts this financial year (ending March 2025),” S&P said.
It noted the central bank’s concern about food inflation, stating that unless there is a lasting and meaningful decline in food price increases, it will be tough to maintain headline inflation at 4 per cent, and estimated inflation to average 4.5 per cent in the current financial year.
S&P emphasised the Centre’s focus on fiscal consolidation, as outlined by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the July Budget.
Notably, the budget allocated a total of Rs 11.11 trillion for capital expenditure, and the Centre has set a target to bring down the fiscal deficit below 4.5 per cent of GDP by FY26.
Earlier this month, the World Bank upgraded India’s GDP growth forecast to 7 per cent from its earlier projection of 6.6 per cent. On similar lines, the International Monetary Fund also revised the projection upwards from 6.8 per cent to 7 per cent.
Speculation about an RBI rate cut has risen following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to announce larger-than-expected reductions in rates, 50 basis points, amid concerns of a slowdown in the US economy.
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